We published our 2026 World Cup predictions on March 29, 2026, before a ball was kicked. The tournament is over. This page was updated on August 18, 2026 to score those predictions against what actually happened. Nothing in the original forecast has been edited — the wording is preserved verbatim throughout, including the calls we got badly wrong.
The short version: we called the champion, the third-place finisher and the Golden Boot. We missed the runner-up, the Golden Ball, and both semi-final ties.
The Scorecard
| What we predicted | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Winner: Spain | Spain | Correct |
| Runner-up: France | Argentina | Wrong |
| Third place: England | England | Correct |
| Golden Boot: Mbappe | Mbappe (France), 10 goals | Correct |
| Golden Ball: Bellingham | Rodri (Spain) | Wrong |
| Semi-final: Spain vs. Argentina | Spain vs. Argentina — but in the final, not the semi-final | Partially right |
| Semi-final: France vs. England | The semi-finals were Spain vs. France and Argentina vs. England | Wrong |
| Young Player: Yamal | We have not confirmed this award | Not scored |
| Dark horse of the tournament: Norway | We have not confirmed Norway's run | Not scored |
What We Got Right
Spain to win
“Winner prediction: Spain. Runner-up: France. Third place: England. Dark horse of the tournament: Norway. Golden Boot: Mbappé. Golden Ball: Bellingham. Young Player: Yamal.”
Spain won it. They beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time at MetLife Stadium on July 19, with Ferran Torres — a substitute — scoring in the 106th minute. It was Spain's second World Cup title, sixteen years after 2010. The reasoning we gave for the pick held up: squad depth and the ability to control a game through midfield were exactly what decided the final, where Spain out-shot Argentina 20 to 3.
England in third
England finished third, beating France 6-4 in the third-place playoff — one of the highest-scoring matches of the tournament, with a Saka hat-trick and a Bellingham goal in stoppage time. Our original read on England was that the squad was exceptional but the tournament mentality unproven. A semi-final exit followed by a six-goal playoff win is about as literal a confirmation of that reading as you could ask for.
Mbappe for the Golden Boot
Kylian Mbappe won the adidas Golden Boot with 10 goals, becoming the first man to win it in consecutive World Cups. Messi took the Silver Boot and Bellingham the Bronze. This was the most confident individual call we made and it was right — though note that we also predicted France would reach the final, and Mbappe's 10 goals came from a France side that lost in the semi-finals and then conceded six in the third-place playoff.
What We Got Wrong
The runner-up: we said France, it was Argentina
“Our prediction for the 2026 World Cup final: Spain vs. France at MetLife Stadium on July 19. Two European powerhouses with contrasting styles — Spain's patient possession against France's explosive counter-attacks. It's a match that could go either way, but we give the slight edge to Spain. Their squad depth, tactical flexibility, and the emergence of Yamal as a tournament-defining talent make them the team to beat.”
We had the right venue, the right date, the right winner and the wrong opponent. France did not reach the final — Spain beat them 2-0 in the semi-final. Argentina got there instead, beating England 2-1 in the other semi. The defending champions then played the entire extra period of the final with ten men after Enzo Fernandez picked up a second yellow card in the 90th minute.
Both semi-final ties
“Prediction 1: Spain vs. Argentina. A clash of styles — Spain's possession game against Argentina's big-game mentality. This would be an all-time great semi-final, with Yamal vs. Romero as the key individual battle. Edge: Spain, who have the depth for a seven-game tournament.”
“Prediction 2: France vs. England. The ultimate rivalry on the World Cup stage. Mbappé vs. Bellingham is the match-up every fan wants to see. Both teams have the quality to win it all, and both have reasons to prove themselves after recent near-misses. Edge: France, because Mbappé is Mbappé.”
Neither tie happened at that stage. The actual semi-finals were Spain 2-0 France and Argentina 2-1 England. We named all four semi-finalists correctly and paired every one of them with the wrong opponent. Spain vs. Argentina did happen — as the final, and we gave the edge to Spain, which was right. That is worth exactly one half-point and no more.
The Golden Ball: we said Bellingham, it was Rodri
Rodri won the Golden Ball. We had named him in our own analysis of Spain's midfield and then picked Bellingham for the individual award anyway — an inconsistency in the original piece that the result exposed.
What We Are Not Scoring
Two predictions are left unscored rather than quietly dropped. We picked Yamal as Young Player of the Tournament and Norway as the dark horse. We have not confirmed either outcome from a source we trust, and this article exists precisely because guessing is what got the call wrong in the first place. If you know the confirmed results, they belong here — until then, unscored is the honest answer.
The Original Predictions, Unedited
Everything below is the March 29, 2026 article as published, word for word. It is reproduced here because a scorecard that hides the workings is not a scorecard.
“Predicting a World Cup winner is a fool's errand — and yet we all do it anyway. The 2026 World Cup is the most open tournament in a generation, with at least six teams that could realistically lift the trophy and several dark horses capable of shocking the world. Here's our analysis of who's most likely to win — and why.”
“Spain (FIFA #1): The most complete team in world football. Their midfield trio of Pedri, Gavi, and Rodri controls possession like no other team. Lamine Yamal adds a dimension of individual brilliance. Spain have won major tournaments (Euro 2024) with this core — they know how to peak for big moments. Odds: ~15% chance.”
“France: Mbappé, Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Saliba — France's squad is absurdly talented. They were runners-up in 2022 and have the individual quality to beat anyone. The key question is team cohesion. When France click, they're unstoppable. Odds: ~14% chance.”
“England: The most talented squad England have produced in decades. Bellingham, Foden, Saka, Rice — the core is exceptional. But England's tournament mentality has been questioned after multiple near-misses. The 2026 World Cup in English-speaking North America gives them a quasi-home advantage. Odds: ~12% chance.”
“Argentina: Defending champions with incredible winning mentality. Even if Messi is diminished or absent, the core of Álvarez, Fernández, Mac Allister, and Romero is elite. Argentina know how to win knockout matches. Odds: ~11% chance.”
“Brazil: The eternal favorites, Brazil always have enough individual talent to win any tournament. Vinícius Jr is their talisman, but the squad depth is remarkable. Brazil haven't won since 2002 — 24 years of hurt creates enormous motivation. Odds: ~10% chance.”
“Germany: After consecutive group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022, Germany have rebuilt with Wirtz, Musiala, and Sané leading the charge. A strong Euro 2024 on home soil restored confidence. Germany in a World Cup on North American soil, with massive German-American diaspora support, could be dangerous. Odds: ~8% chance.”
“Norway: Haaland's World Cup debut makes Norway instantly watchable and dangerous. If he scores 5+ goals, Norway could reach the semi-finals. Colombia: Tactical excellence under Lorenzo, a huge US fan base, and Luis Díaz's magic. Morocco: Proven World Cup performers with the defensive structure to frustrate anyone. Each of these teams has a ~3–5% chance of winning it all — unlikely but not impossible.”
“Of course, the beauty of the World Cup is that predictions are often wrong. The tournament that actually unfolds is always more dramatic, more surprising, and more magical than anything we can predict. That's why we watch.”
Three Out of Six
Scored strictly, that is three correct calls out of six that we can verify, plus one half-credit for the Spain vs. Argentina pairing landing a round later than we said. Getting the champion and the top scorer right is a genuinely good return. Getting both semi-final ties wrong while naming all four semi-finalists is a reminder of what these forecasts are actually worth: a read on which teams are strong, not on how a bracket will resolve.
We are keeping this page as it is — right answers and wrong ones side by side. Predictions are only worth anything if you publish the score afterwards.